That was my favorite saying in high school and college algebra classes. 

I am not a numbers girl. That’s until I started this adoption. Every now and then I fiddle with the numbers from a notorious rumor blog. It’s like a big mysterious algebra problem. 

According to her numbers, based on membership, 420 families were referred from Jan to Oct. If this trend continues it will take another 19 months (676 referrals) to get through LIDs of March 2006 . That puts us at April 2009.

Taking that further, it will take another 14 months (486 referrals) to get to September 1, 2006 LID. That puts my referral around June 2010. 

That’s of course a total wait time of 45 months.  = Beth’s theory #1

Okay, all the numbers above are in no way scientific. 

Her disclaimer is that as we get closer to the months being referred the membership increases. So looking ahead is not accurate. Unfortunately, there really is no place to go to get the real number of dossiers per month. 

This past summer the CCAA, in their world tour, told many agencies that they planned on doing 15 days of referrals for 2006.

Now the question is did they mean calendar days or LID days???

If we go back to the above mention, not accurate numbers, for December and using the 15 calendar theory and do the math again, here’s what it looks like. 

I will us the Notorious Blog 2005 referral math for December = 5.5 months

It will take 14 months to get through January to August. That = 19.5 months May -June 2009 for my referral. = Beth’s theory #2

Now I will use the 15 LID per month theory.  Are you still following my convoluted algebra?

Taking into account no weekends or Chinese holidays (they have 3 weeks of holidays per year). That’s approximately 178 LIDs between December 2005 and August 2006. 

Divide 178 by 15 = 11.8 months = Beth’s theory #3

So there you have it. My referral theories are:

#1 June 2010

#2 May-June 2009

#3 September 2008

45 months to 12 months. What do you do with that? As my father would say about a bunch of B.S.  “Stick it in your pipe and smoke it!”